PredictBay™ Emerges From Stealth With $26.1 Billion in Paper Volume and 1-Minute Sui Prediction Markets, Taking Aim at Polymarket and Kalshi

The Silicon Valley-built, Panama-incorporated PredictBay.io is preparing one-minute UP/DOWN markets on Sui's DeepBook Predict, combining sub-second blockchain settlement, shared liquidity, zkLogin and an options roadmap spanning crypto, gold, oil and eventually 24/7 equities

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 19, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- PredictBay™, a new consumer prediction-market platform built on Sui's DeepBook Predict, is coming out of stealth with numbers designed to get the prediction-market industry's attention: more than $26.1 billion in simulated paper-trading volume and more than $1.30 billion in simulated paper-trading fees since its stealth launch in January 2026, according to the company's current trading dashboard.

Those figures are simulated rather than real-money revenue - but that is exactly the point. PredictBay™ says the activity was generated during months of product testing, without a paid marketing campaign, as the team fine-tuned a trading experience intended to make high-speed prediction and options markets feel less like a crypto terminal and more like a consumer app.

Now the stealth period is ending.

PredictBay™ says its next phase will introduce 1-minute UP/DOWN prediction markets, broaden public access to its Sui testnet experience, distribute more than 1 million dUSDC testnet units for users to put the system through its paces, and prepare for a DeepBook Predict mainnet rollout later in 2026. DUSDC is DeepBook Predict's Testnet quote asset; testnet balances are not cash and are being used to test the system with the early community.

And the one-minute market may be the feature that immediately puts PredictBay™ into the Polymarket-versus-Kalshi conversation.

As of August 17, Polymarket is offering 5-minute Bitcoin Up or Down markets, while Kalshi is offering 15-minute BTC Up or Down markets. PredictBay's announced one-minute format would make its round duration five times shorter than Polymarket's current five-minute BTC format and fifteen times shorter than Kalshi's current 15-minute product. That comparison concerns market duration rather than a blanket claim about matching-engine latency, but for retail users it creates a radically different loop: choose UP or DOWN, watch the market resolve, and move to the next opportunity within a minute.

A Polymarket Alternative Built More Like an Options Engine

What could make PredictBay™ more consequential than simply another prediction-market frontend is the infrastructure underneath it.

DeepBook Predict is the third financial primitive in the DeepBook stack, alongside Spot and Margin. Sui describes Predict as an on-chain prediction and options primitive capable of supporting binary markets, options, leveraged products and structured instruments. Its options pricing infrastructure was developed with Block Scholes, and Sui says transactions can settle in under 400 milliseconds.

DeepBook Predict also approaches liquidity differently from a conventional prediction-market order book. Its current documentation describes liquidity providers supplying quote assets into a shared vault, against which applications can mint and redeem oracle-priced binary positions and vertical ranges.

That matters because liquidity fragmentation is one of prediction markets' hardest scaling problems.

Polymarket documents a CLOB architecture in which user orders are created off-chain, matched by an operator and then settled on-chain, with markets relying on their order books for price discovery. Kalshi likewise exposes order books for individual market tickers, while Kalshi Alternative PredictBay does not. DeepBook Predict instead is designed around an on-chain options primitive with shared liquidity and composability across the broader DeepBook stack. Sui describes the architecture as enabling Predict positions to compose with Margin, Spot and other Predict positions rather than ending as isolated binary tokens.

DeepBook's own technical presentation goes further: it describes shared liquidity as a way to reduce fragmentation across large numbers of markets and calculate option contract pricing on demand.

That distinction could become increasingly important as PredictBay™ moves beyond simple UP/DOWN markets.

Prediction Markets Are the Front Door. Options Are the Bigger Bet.

PredictBay's vision is much larger than guessing whether Bitcoin moves up or down over the next minute.

DeepBook Predict's architecture treats many of these products as options under the hood. Its roadmap extends from binary markets into ranges, calls, puts, spreads, leveraged exposures and structured products. DeepBook's own presentation describes an eventual expansion from Bitcoin into crypto, equities and real-world assets, including the concept of trading an S&P 500 UP/DOWN market around the clock.

For PredictBay™, that points toward an eventual consumer market covering Bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets, gold, silver and potentially broad equity markets - 24 hours a day, seven days a week where legally available.

The ambition is to hide most of that complexity.

A user should not need to understand options Greeks, manage a seed phrase or learn an institutional trading terminal to express a simple market view. Sui's zkLogin technology can turn an existing OAuth login such as Google or Apple into a Sui address without exposing users to seed phrases or persistent private-key management.

For PredictBay™, the intended experience is deliberately simple: log in, select a market, choose UP or DOWN, select a stake and trade.

The design benchmark is closer to the accessibility of a mainstream consumer brokerage or mobile game than a traditional crypto derivatives interface.

Why DeepBook Predict Could Change the Economics of Prediction Markets

The wider market is already enormous.

When Sui introduced DeepBook Predict in May, it cited $7 billion of Polymarket volume in February 2026 alone and approximately 70,000 daily active users, while arguing that the on-chain options category remained dramatically underdeveloped. Sui positioned Predict as infrastructure capable of bringing institutional options pricing, shared liquidity and composability into the same on-chain stack.

Its technical advantage is not merely speed.

DeepBook combines a shared financial infrastructure layer with Sui's parallel execution architecture. Sui says DeepBook Spot has processed more than $17 billion of cumulative on-chain volume, with trades settling on-chain in under 400 milliseconds and negligible gas costs. Predict extends that stack toward expiry-based markets and options.

Sui has also described an internal market maker planned for Predict to address the prediction-market "cold start" problem and provide quotes as new markets come online. That component is still described as coming soon, rather than a capability that should be represented as fully deployed today.

The result is a very different thesis from simply creating thousands of independent event pages and hoping liquidity appears.

PredictBay™ wants to make the front end radically simple while making the infrastructure underneath it dramatically more sophisticated.

More Than $26 Billion Before the Marketing Machine Even Turns On!

PredictBay's paper-trading numbers are unusually large for a product that has remained largely out of public view.

The company's current dashboard shows approximately $26.16 billion in cumulative simulated paper volume and approximately $1.302 billion in simulated paper fees. PredictBay™ says those figures were accumulated organically while the team focused on stress-testing market mechanics, user behavior and a game-like retail interface.

But for a stealth product preparing to enter one of crypto's fastest-growing categories, the data gives PredictBay™ a compelling opening narrative: the public launch is not the beginning of testing - it comes after billions of dollars of simulated market activity.

The company says PredictBay™ is one of several products being developed inside a still-undisclosed Silicon Valley technology startup that has raised more than $8.2 million. For now, the parent company remains deliberately out of the spotlight, putting the product in front of the founder story.

PredictBay™ Adds Zack Nelson as CMO as Singapore Launch Push Begins

PredictBay™ is also expanding its public-facing leadership as it prepares to leave stealth.

The company has named Zack Nelson as Chief Marketing Officer. Nelson is also Founder and CEO of Genzio Media and brings Web3 marketing, media and go-to-market experience spanning work with and alongside Ripple, OKX, Hedera, Canton Network and other major crypto ecosystems.

His mandate at PredictBay™ centers on a problem that has limited crypto and prediction markets for years: making sophisticated financial infrastructure understandable, accessible and enjoyable for normal consumers.

Nelson has proposed a Sui Basecamp session titled "Prediction Markets for Everyone: How Simplicity Unlocks Mass Adoption," focused on consumer experience, product positioning and bringing prediction markets beyond crypto-native audiences.

Sui Basecamp 2026 takes place October 7-8 at SUI Base Camp Marina Bay Sands in Singapore alongside TOKEN2049, putting the gathering at the center of one of the largest weeks on the global crypto calendar.

A Fair-Launch Utility Token Is Also Coming

PredictBay™ is separately preparing $PBAY, which the company describes as a fair-launch utility token for the PredictBay ecosystem.

PredictBay's current published token page identifies $PBAY as a utility token and labels the structure a "Fair Launch." Importantly, the published tokenomics remain a design proposal, and PredictBay states that no $PBAY contract exists yet. Final token economics, eligibility, jurisdictions and launch terms therefore remain subject to final approval and official disclosures.

The token is intended to accompany the platform rather than obscure the product story: one-minute markets, consumer-grade onboarding and an options infrastructure capable of extending far beyond crypto.

The Bigger Vision: An Always-On Global Market Interface

Prediction markets have traditionally been framed around elections, sports, headlines or one-off events.

PredictBay™ is pursuing another interpretation: prediction markets as the simplest possible interface for options.

Bitcoin first. Then additional crypto assets. Then gold and oil prediction markets. Eventually equities and other real-world assets. UP or DOWN when simplicity matters; ranges, leverage and more sophisticated option structures when users want them.

DeepBook Predict's underlying roadmap already points in this direction. Its creators describe Bitcoin UP/DOWN markets as an entry point into a much larger on-chain options opportunity spanning equities, RWAs, calls, puts, spreads and structured products.

If PredictBay™ can put that infrastructure behind an interface that feels as easy as tapping two buttons, the company believes the next generation of prediction markets may look less like betting websites - and more like an entirely new consumer trading category.

One minute. UP or DOWN. Sub-second rails underneath it.

And after more than $26 billion of simulated trading before the public marketing push even begins, PredictBay™ is finally ready to see what happens when the rest of the world discovers it.

About PredictBay™ Follow on Twitter: https://x.com/PredictBay

PredictBay™ is a consumer-focused prediction and options platform being built on Sui and DeepBook Predict. PredictBay™ is developing ultra-short-duration UP/DOWN markets and a broader roadmap spanning digital assets, commodities and equities, with a focus on simple onboarding, fast settlement and accessible consumer UX.  

PredictBay's Terms identify its operating entity as incorporated in the Republic of Panama. Availability is jurisdiction-dependent, and PredictBay's current Terms restrict access in the United States and a number of other jurisdictions. PredictBay is not registered, licensed or supervised by a financial regulator in Panama or elsewhere.

Status disclosure: PredictBay's current public risk disclosure states that paper mode is the tradeable product today and that its Sui/DeepBook Predict integration is a Testnet integration rather than a real-funds product. DeepBook Predict itself remains on Sui Testnet and its contracts may change before Mainnet. Paper balances and dUSDC testnet units have no cash value. One-minute markets, broader public testnet access, $PBAY, Mainnet timing, gold, silver and equity markets are planned or forward-looking features and remain subject to technical, market and regulatory availability.

Media Contact:
Zackary Nelson

support@predictbay.io

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Research Sources

https://docs.sui.io/onchain-finance/deepbook/deepbook-predict/

https://www.sui.io/blog/introducing-deepbook-predict

https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/order-lifecycle

https://www.sui.io/blog/deepbook-spot-margin-primitives-for-builders

https://docs.sui.io/sui-stack/zklogin-integration/

https://www.sui.io/basecamp

https://predictbay.io/token

https://predictbay.io/terms

https://predictbay.io/disclaimer

Additional source material supplied by PredictBay: "Zack Nelson - SUI" and "DeepBook Predict - Market size and speech."

Photos accompanying this announcement are available at

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